Is it a Buyers Market? And what does it mean for property in Richmond?

‘Experts’ predict a Buyers Market in 2025 – but what is happening in Richmond Upon Thames?

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January’s newspapers have been full of headlines about a stagnating economy, stubborn inflation, pending job cuts, and – when it comes to the Property Market – news that we are seeing high levels of listing activity (good news, right?) which, according to ‘experts’ everywhere from Rightmove through to Hamptons, is leading to a ‘buyers market’ (good, bad or indifferent news, but that depends on where you are sitting). 

So is this the picture that we are seeing in Richmond, Twickenham and Teddington? 

First of all, we should address the obvious question…

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What is a Buyers Market?

A buyers market can typically be summed up by a market where there are more sellers than there are buyers – so, in the case of property, without wishing to patronise, more people trying to sell their property than there are buyers trying to buy them – or, as is sometimes the case (for example the 2008-2009 ‘credit crunch’), more sellers than there are buyers able to buy them, due to a lack of borrowing ability… (buyers wanted to buy in 2008 – they just couldn’t!).

When there are more sellers and less buyers, and when other economic pressures like inflation (cost of living) and interest rates (high mortgage repayments) conspire to add to the equation, it can lead to reduced transaction numbers, which leads to competition amongst sellers, which leads to reduced property prices, and overall can herald a market where buyers feel they have more negotiating power. And indeed, perhaps they do.

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The current reality of the 2025 property market

When it comes to the property market in early 2025 at a national level, indicators are that we are indeed seeing higher than average numbers of properties on the market. 

Some in this industry are fans of Boxing Day as a weather-gauge for market activity. December in general can otherwise be a muted sort of a month, but Boxing Day has become a date in the calendar for kickstarting the market. At Bartlett and Partners, it has to be said that we don’t in fact subscribe to the idea of holding properties back for a ‘Boxing Day Launch’ – what is the point in launching a property to receive enquiries on a day that you are likely closed and not responding? 

Nevertheless, it is notable that Rightmove has reported seeing the busiest ever Boxing Day for new seller activity, with record numbers of new listings coming to the market on that single day. 

Rightmove’s Tim Bannister, quoted in The Guardian newspaper last week, has also claimed that the number of properties listed per agent is ‘at a decade-high for the time of year’ as we enter 2025.

As mentioned earlier in the piece, Mr Bannister is also an adherent to the notion that 2025 will be a buyers market, however he has also made the claim in the same article that total buyer demand on Boxing Day, measured by inquiries made to Estate Agents about properties for sale, was 20% higher this Boxing Day than on Boxing Day 2023.

Seller activity up; but crucially – as far as we can see – buyer activity up also.

Perhaps it will be a buyers market in 2025, but as we stand at the tail end of January 2025, we wouldn’t say that Bannister’s observations about buyer inquiry levels would point to that being the current reality.

But we don’t need to read between any lines that Mr Bannister or The Guardian or indeed any other publication gives us, because instead we can analyse data – and data provided by property data specialists TwentyEA tells us that, as of last week, new listings were indeed around 20% up compared to the same time last year; sales agreed on the other hand, and importantly ‘Net Sales’ (after fall throughs), were around 50% higher – in fact, Net Sales were better than sales agreed, as fall throughs have been lower.

A Buyers Market? We would say, ‘not yet’. Not nationally, at any rate…

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The January 2025 Market in Richmond Borough

Another question then, is whether the property market in Richmond, Twickenham and Teddington is showing any early signs of becoming a buyers market?

There are currently around1,600 properties for sale in the borough, and just a little under a quarter of that number – 393 properties – have come to market within the past 14 days. 

The number of properties currently sold subject to contract is nearing 1,300 – so we can say with confidence that around 45% of people attempting to sell their home in Richmond Borough at the moment are actively on course to do so, with almost a quarter of those remaining for sale having only listed within the past 14 days – and that figure therefore not including sales which have already exchanged contracts and dropped off property portals this month.

These are strong numbers, and whilst the data is not yet available for property sales in the borough during the month of January, it is almost certain to be running ahead of where we were this time last year – only 63 sales in the month of January 2024, that number being significantly lower than they were in January 2023, when we saw 189 sales. 

Sale prices are currently holding up; holding up, rather than racing up. ONS data shows that property prices paid on mortgaged properties averaged around £752,000 in the borough during the last three months, just a little higher than the amount recorded in November 2023 for mortgaged buyers, which was £744,000 – a 1% increase (note: we use mortgaged purchases as it gives us recent data; total sales numbers including cash purchases will be recorded on Land Registry, but the data lags – we will know more in around three to six months time). 

These factors together – strong market activity, not limited solely to high listings but also significant buyer activity, from buyer registrations to sales being agreed, and no evidence to speak of, of prices currently falling – points at the moment to it being if not a sellers market exactly, neither is it a buyers market. 

It seems obvious that a local agent might say this, but really the evidence is that at present it is a stable but definitely active market – and anecdotally, we would say this is also our own take on things.

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Is there a buyers market to come in Richmond Borough (and should you fear it)?

A Buyers Market this way comes. 

Well, perhaps. 

At the moment, the signs are not yet there, but we do know there is a cliff edge coming on March 31^st, when stamp duty becomes more expensive – especially for first time buyers. This may be in part the reason that buyer inquiries are up, as buyers rush to secure a sale that might yet just proceed before that date. 

Newsflash: if you have not found one to buy already, chances are that any sale you might now agree, even if it were next week, will take longer to go through than the time you have left before March 31^st. We would not want to put anybody off purchasing – but we would want buyers now, and especially heading into February, to be prepared for that high probability.

For sellers, it is currently a positive time to be on the market, whilst inquiries are high.

If we do see a buyers market come to Richmond, Twickenham and Teddington, it can still be a positive time to be on the market – but it might benefit to adapt the approach. For example, should there be a drop in prices – and it is not always the case that there will be – sellers who are also buying on in the same market will naturally see a reflective drop in the price of the property they are buying. 

Speculative pricing tends to stop – so sellers will be more likely to price to sell. Now, that does not mean pricing lower than market value – it means pricing for the market value, rather than overegging the pudding to speculate. This leads to quicker transactions at closer to the list price. There is also the potential to think creatively about marketing and about deals – incentives to pay closing costs, include appliances and other fixtures, be flexible on move dates, be open to covering some repairs as part of the deal… agreeing to service the boiler for a couple of hundred pounds in order to save a £752,000 sale from going south – got to be worth it in any market, but you’d be surprised how often sellers baulk at the idea in a so called ‘sellers market’.

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The reality of the property market in our area is that we have amongst other things good schools, good services, generally good properties, and therefore good reasons for buyers to continue buying here… that is the difference between the property market in Richmond Borough and the property market in many other places elsewhere – and why even in a buyers market here we may not truly notice the difference. 

But nevertheless, be prepared for it, be open to it, and be ready to bed just a little bit, and you will find that your prospects for moving home remain absolutely fine.